Market Information
Chocolate Prices
Many of you will already be aware that the chocolate industry is under extreme pressure due to the huge increases in cocoa commodity traded prices since February 2024. No one expected such a development, which has been well documented recently in the press.
The main reason is a dramatic decline in cocoa supply. This has led to premium prices being commanded and has propelled the cost to unprecedented highs. The decrease in cocoa supply is due to a convergence of structural issues in West Africa:
• less cocoa grown due to land shortage, deforestation, and gold mining.
- ageing tress in Ivory Coast & Ghana with lower yields and ‘swollen shoot’ tree virus necessitating felling of whole plantations.
- farmers switching away from cocoa farming to rubber or palm farming for a higher income.
- weather variations and complications linked to El Nino.
- speculators in the market have intensified the trend upwards.
Therefore in 2024 and into 2025 the chocolate market is confronted with significant challenges. This huge price-wave is rolling over the whole chocolate industry and sooner or later everyone will be facing the new situation.
Potatoes
It sounds like the transition into spring has brought encouraging conditions for agriculture. The past winter was broadly average in terms of rainfall and temperature, though frosts were frequent. These conditions have left soils in good shape as we move into April. Many growers have already started planting, with the first potatoes going into the ground in early March. Efforts to monitor and analyse the 2024 crop in storage continue, ensuring optimal usage through to early summer.
Tomatoes
As of April 2025, tomato prices are expected to show mixed trends influenced by factors like product type, origin, packaging, and market conditions. The global forecast for tomato processing stands at 40.5 million tonnes, reflecting an 11.5% reduction compared to 2024, aligning closer to consumption levels. EU raw material prices have decreased by around 15% compared to the 2024 crop. Northern Italy is an exception, with prices rising to €145 per metric tonne ex-field. This price shift could lead to reduced acreage across Europe. The price gap between Italy and other EU countries is widening, while the gap between EU and Non-EU countries is narrowing.
Tomato paste stocks have increased due to high processing levels in 2023 and 2024, with most surplus held in China. Concerns over Chinese-origin paste in European products may limit exports to Europe. Stocks of chopped tomatoes remain minimal due to Northern Italy’s poor crop last year and reliance on other countries to fill the gap.
Wheat
Grain markets have stayed relatively calm, with old crop demand weak due to ample supply, and new crops benefiting from favourable weather. In the UK, crops are emerging from winter in strong condition, with dry weather helping fertiliser applications and spring plantings. Across Europe, things look positive overall, although France had a slower start. EU wheat planting is up 6.2% year on year, with total EU and UK production forecast to be 16 million metric tons higher than 2024, reaching 140.85 million mt. For the first time in years, global grain fundamentals feel stable, but macroeconomic uncertainty is bringing back some market volatility, though not for the usual supply reasons.
Fruit
Severe frost across nearly all regions of Turkey early April, has caused extensive damage to agricultural crops, marking the worst such event since 2014. Record-low temperatures led to significant or total crop losses, particularly in key growing areas like Malatya, Manisa, and Izmir. Apricots and sultana raisins were hit hardest, followed by other crops including hazelnuts, figs, cherries, apples, and various vegetables. The disaster has impacted growers, exporters, and the wider supply chain, raising concerns over domestic price increases and global supply disruptions, especially as Turkey is a major exporter of affected products. Authorities continue to assess the full extent of the damage.
Coffee
The surge in coffee prices is being driven by rising green bean costs. Since Q4 2024, Arabica prices are up 47% and Robusta has risen 7%. Looking further back to January 2023, Arabica has increased by 71%, while Robusta has surged by 176%.
Cocoa
Cocoa prices have dropped recently due to improving supply outlooks and reduced demand, despite earlier record highs driven by a global deficit. Ivory Coast’s mid-crop is forecasted at 400,000 MT, down 9% from last year, while the ICCO predicts a global surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, the first in four years, thanks to a 7.8% rise in production. However, high cocoa costs have started impacting demand, with major producers like Mondelez and Hershey warning of falling consumption and reducing product sizes to avoid price hikes. Grinding figures confirm this downturn, with Q4 2024 grindings hitting four-year lows in both Europe and Asia. If demand continues to soften and speculator selling persists, cocoa prices may stabilise or even drop by Q4 2025.
Pineapple
From 2019 to 2024, the average pineapple production volume in Thailand declined by approximately 670,000 metric tons, a 42% drop compared to 2013–2018. Unlike crops such as mango or rubber, pineapple farming is labour- and capital-intensive, requiring continuous replanting. Additionally, 10 canneries have closed over the past decade, highlighting the strain on the sector. The industry’s reliance on independent farmers has proven increasingly unsustainable under current economic and operational pressures. Based on the reports, it’s clear that the challenges in the pineapple sector aren’t likely to be resolved anytime soon, meaning prices are expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
Cauliflower
The initial crop expected in July–August is still some time away, but with current stocks depleted, its performance will be critical. Last year’s second crop, harvested in September-October, failed to alleviate the ongoing shortage, leaving supply concerns unresolved.
Pepper
The pepper market remains volatile as several factors apply upward pressure on prices. A 3% devaluation of the pound against the US dollar has made imports more expensive, compounding supply issues caused by a 15% drop in Vietnam’s 2024 crop yield, which is expected to remain low in 2025. Contributing factors include poor vine maintenance, a shift by farmers to more profitable crops like coffee and durian, and minimal new plantings. With no significant carry-over stock, Vietnam is relying on 60,000MT of imported pepper, mainly from Brazil, whose own yields are also down. Chinese demand, typically a dominant market force, is currently 50% below normal, but any large-scale buying could quickly drive prices higher. Although prices remain over $2,000/MT above the 10-year average, suppressing demand, geopolitical instability and tight global supply continue to support firm pricing. The market is expected to stay fflatin the near term with potential for sharp increases, and suppliers recommend securing stock early.