Market Information
Rapeseed Oil
Global rapeseed production for the upcoming season appears strong, assuming favourable weather. However, low carry-out stocks in both Canada and the EU will limit overall supply, leaving the market vulnerable to disruptions. This tight supply could support prices into the new season, with potential impacts lasting through to the end of September, depending on harvest timing and volumes.
Sunflower Seed Oil
As the season draws to a close, tight seed and oil stocks have kept prices firm, despite limited buying activity. Looking ahead, the prospect of a record new crop (weather permitting) is expected to pressure new-season prices lower, allowing them to remain competitive globally. In the meantime, prices continue to fluctuate in line with movements in rival vegetable oils.
Wheat
The UK saw around 50% less rainfall than average in April, marking the driest start to a year in four decades, which has weakened winter wheat crop ratings from 67% to 60% good/excellent. With old crop marketing effectively over and buyers well covered, unsold grain is being carried over. European and UK wheat export demand remains minimal due to uncompetitive pricing. The focus now shifts to new crop development, with increasing dryness across key European producers and persistent dryness in Russia, Australia, and China. However, Ukraine and the US are faring better, with U.S. wheat rated 61% good/excellent. Russia forecasts a strong 2025 crop, potentially boosting global supply. Future UK wheat pricing hinges on whether the country generates an exportable surplus and broader international market movements. While buyers see opportunity in low prices, growers are reluctant to sell at loss-making levels. With harvest approaching, the market faces potential volatility if buyer hesitation coincides with continued seller resistance.
Cheese
The cheese market remained quiet over Easter, with limited trading but growing uncovered demand. April prices remained stable overall, although weekly fluctuations occurred due to Easter buying, currency movements, and an increased milk supply. Despite global trade uncertainty, cheese prices are holding steady. Low stock levels and unmet demand suggest underlying strength; however, rising milk supplies could place downward pressure on overall market confidence.
Tomatoes
Due to persistent heavy rainfall in Italy, only 8% of the planned tomato planting has been completed to date. This delayed start is expected to push back the harvesting period, potentially resulting in a reduced overall crop yield for the season. The early view on this season’s prices, however, is that booking earlier will offer the best value.
Peas
Spring 2025 has brought record sunshine in the UK, allowing farmers to plant peas over a month earlier than last year, raising hopes for strong yields. However, a severe lack of rainfall in March and April poses a risk to crop development, with limited rain expected in the short term. Globally, pea markets are under pressure due to surplus from the strong 2024 UK crop, trade tariffs, and limited Canadian access to key markets like China and India. These factors are driving price deflation. If the trend continues, reduced planting in 2026 could help stabilise prices.
Apricots
The severe April frost has devastated Turkey’s 2025 apricot crop, with near-total losses expected due to extreme temperatures and heavy snowfall during peak bloom and early fruit development. Only around 50,000 tons remain from the current crop, split between committed packers and growers with unsold stock. However, it’s unclear how much of this will be available for market. Some trading is occurring locally, with prices between $10,000—$11,000 per ton, but activity is expected to decline quickly. Many exporters have exhausted their stocks, shut down operations, and do not expect to resume until the 2025/26 season. Export prices remain unquoted, a situation expected to persist until at least the end of July.
Almonds
April saw California almond exports reach a record 188 million pounds, a 6.3% increase on last year, though domestic demand softened with a 17.8% drop. Year-to-date, total shipments are down slightly at 1.4%. The recent forecast points to a modestly larger 2025 crop of 2.8 billion pounds—up 3%—based on slightly higher yields and acreage. While uncommitted inventory has increased, April still showed strong contracting activity by historical standards. Looking ahead, the market remains tight with available stock representing 18.5% of expected market demand with growing concern around trade logistics and outbound shipping capacity, particularly considering shifting global trade patterns.
Tuna
The tuna market remains stable at present; however, a gradual price increase is anticipated over the next two to three weeks. Historically, market prices begin to rise from early June through mid-October due to seasonal fishing restrictions that impact global supply. Key factors influencing this trend include:
- The Western Pacific FAD ban (Effective July 1st): This annual restriction on Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs) in the Western Pacific typically begins to affect market sentiment by late May or early June, as buyers anticipate a reduced supply. The Western Pacific accounts for over 50% of the global skipjack tuna catch, making it a significant driver of market dynamics.
- The Eastern Pacific Total Fishing Ban (Effective August 1st): A complete fishing closure in the Eastern Pacific is scheduled to commence in early August. This region contributes approximately 25% of the global skipjack tuna supply, further compounding upward pressure on prices.
Both restrictions are expected to end by mid-October. As a result, downward adjustments in pricing are typically observed in the November—December period, in line with historical patterns.
Beef
UK and Irish cattle prices continue to rise, reaching record levels of £7.00/kg last week, marking a 40% increase since September 2024. The price gap between UK and Irish beef has now closed, eliminating any cost advantage previously held by Irish beef. UK beef production in Q1 was down 3.5% compared to the same period in 2024, yet demand remains strong. However, it remains unclear whether the market has reached its peak or if prices could continue to climb further. Amid this uncertainty and elevated risk, suppliers are currently only willing to offer pricing for short durations.
Chicken
UK chicken prices have risen 17% year-on-year, driven by strong demand and the impact of the Better Chicken Commitment, which has reduced stocking densities and constrained supply. Concerns are mounting over UK availability in the second half of the year, as EU producers, particularly those in Poland, are unable to compensate due to rising cases of Avian Influenza. Following the confirmation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Brazil on 16th May, all exports of raw chicken (natural, salted, or marinated) to the EU and UK have been suspended. Health certificates for these products can no longer be issued as of 12th May 2025. The suspension will significantly affect Brazilian supply, with products expected to run out within three weeks, impacting the fulfilment of existing contracts. Delays and potential force majeure situations may arise for orders due from mid-June onwards, particularly those involving Brazilian chicken breast and inner fillets. Alternatives will be offered where possible. If demand remains substantial, further price increases are likely in the second half of 2025.
Sea Freight
Trade between the US and China has nearly ground to a halt following China’s retaliatory tariffs of up to 125% on US goods in response to the US’s cumulative 145% tariffs. This escalating trade war has led to a sharp drop in shipping demand, with ocean carriers implementing over 80 blank sailings in April 2025—more than during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Asia—US trade lanes are experiencing significant declines, with west coast demand down 28% and east coast demand expected to drop by 42% next week. The European Commission is closely monitoring imports amid concerns of a surge in Chinese goods, which could worsen existing port congestion across Europe.
Tin Plate
European tinplate contract prices have increased by 6-9%, with a midpoint of 7.5%. Market volatility remains high due to several factors: anti-dumping measures on Chinese tinplate, EU steel safeguards, potential reductions in import quotas, the ongoing impact of Trump-era tariffs, rising geopolitical tensions—particularly between the US and China—and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), aimed at promoting low-carbon industrial production.