Market Information
Potatoes
Market demand for free (non-contracted) potatoes is currently very low. Processors are relying entirely on precontracted supplies, which means there is no need for additional purchases. This, combined with sluggish French fry sales and uncertainties over U.S. import duties, has put pressure on sales prices and processor margins. As a result, daily market prices for the last stored free potatoes continue to decline.
The harvest transition is still expected to proceed smoothly and on time. Prices for the new harvest are still uncertain, with current contract prices holding steady at levels similar to last season.
Planting & Growing Season – The dry spring of 2025 has led to an early and successful planting season.
February and March saw significantly below-average rainfall, allowing growers to begin planting much earlier than last year, when wet conditions delayed the season. Currently, potato development varies across regions and growers. Although the prolonged drought has not yet caused problems, crops are still in the rooting phase. However, continued dryness, especially over the next three weeks, could threaten quality and yields, particularly for early varieties.
Adequate rainfall soon is considered essential. Not all growers have access to irrigation, increasing the risk for some areas if the drought persists. If the current drought continues, it could trigger a revival in market prices for both old and new crop potatoes.
A prolonged dry spell would likely reshape market sentiment entirely, introducing significant uncertainty around supply. Given that potato production is highly sensitive to weather, an uncontrollable variable, the market remains unpredictable. Ultimately, it is still unclear how the season will unfold and what the final production volumes will be in the EU-4 countries (Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands).
Wheat
UK wheat production is forecast up 6% year-on-year to 13.1 mmt, with recent rain improving crop outlook. Domestic demand may dip due to uncertainty around Vivergo Fuels, which consumes -1mmt of wheat annually and now threatens closure over trade policy concerns.
A surplus of up to 2.5mmt could pressure prices lower to compete for exports. Globally, wheat stocks remain tight despite improved production forecasts. Russian and Ukrainian output is strong, but geopolitical risks persist.
French crop ratings dipped slightly, and dryness in China is a growing concern. Overall, market sentiment is mixed with a slight upward bias due to supply risks.
Cheese
The UK dairy market is showing signs of cautious recovery, supported by strong spring milk volumes.
Meanwhile, poor weather in parts of the EU has limited their seasonal supply increase, tightening availability. Cheese, particularly Cheddar, continues to perform well, while liquid milk demand remains mixed. A new UK-EU agreement is expected to ease border checks and reduce costs, improving export potential for UK dairy. Globally, rising US-China trade tensions are redirecting Chinese demand toward UK and EU suppliers, especially for younger cheeses, boosting export opportunities and supporting prices.
Mozzarella prices remain elevated, driven by strong demand and limited production, particularly in Southern Europe, where seasonal tourism is increasing consumption. Market conditions are tight, and prices are expected to stay high through Q3 2025, with little relief anticipated before year-end.
Emmental has also seen a price increase of over 10% year-on-year, due to reduced milk supply caused by poor weather in parts of the EU. Demand from both retail and foodservice remains strong, and elevated pricing is likely to persist into Q3.
Butter
Butter prices remained firm over the reporting period, recording a modest month-on-month increase of £10/t. Price ranges also tightened significantly, indicating reduced market variability. Despite strong milk production volumes, butter stocks remain limited. Demand has been reported as generally stable compared to the previous month. Overall, the market remained largely steady throughout the period.
Milk
Milk production remains strong in both the UK and Ireland, supported by favourable weather and solid margins. Irish milk volumes are up 8% year-on-year, while UK volumes have increased by 5.8% as of May. In contrast, EU milk production is down approximately 2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing regulatory, environmental, and economic pressures.
A declining cow population across Europe, due to low replacement rates and policy constraints, continues to weigh on overall supply.
Olive Oil
Favourable weather conditions in Spain point to a potentially record-breaking olive oil harvest, with growing stocks and corresponding price easing.
Production outlooks in other key regions are also positive. The expected abundance and lower prices are likely to further boost olive oil consumption, continuing the shift away from sunflower seed oil.
Rapeseed
Markets remain mixed. Old crop supplies are tight, supporting prices, while new crop expectations are strong across the EU and UK, adding downward pressure. Grush margins are weak, and biodiesel demand remains soft. Weather developments in Canada and Australia could still influence pricing.
Almonds
The 2025 California almond crop is forecast at 2.8 billion lbs, higher than expected but still below the 3-billion-lb mark. Expansion of planted area remains limited due to prolonged low prices. Australia and Spain anticipate growth in production. Demand is increasing, especially among health-conscious younger consumers.
However, challenges like climate change and bee population decline continue to impact the sector.
Prices are expected to firm.
Cod
Global cod supply has dropped to its lowest level since 1950 due to quota cuts and declining wild catches, with only 700,000 tonnes expected in 2025. Although farmed cod production in Norway is rising, it remains insufficient to offset the supply gap. Despite higher prices, the UK, Norway’s top export market, continues to see stable demand driven by traditional consumption patterns. Businesses are adapting through portion control, product substitution, and new sales strategies. While farmed cod may help ease long-term shortages, price pressures are expected to persist in the short term.
Sugar
The UK sugar supply is stable through to the end of September 2025, with no shortages expected.
However, the British sugar beet crop area is reduced to an estimated 94,000-96,000 hectares, down from a typical 102,000, due to low grower incentives. Early plantings have progressed well with recent rainfall, but later sowings in dry conditions face poor emergence. Virus Yellow remains a threat despite a cold winter reducing aphid populations, and the continued ban on neonicotinoids could impact yields and sugar content. In Europe, plantings are also down 7-9%, with total output forecast to fall from 17m to 15.3m tonnes, reducing export availability. On the global market, prices remain stable, but all attention is on Brazil (52% of global exports), where a disappointing harvest is expected. With continued uncertainty around the split between sugar and ethanol production, the market outlook leans towards upward price pressure.
Hazelnuts
Turkey’s 2024/25 hazelnut crop is estimated at 609,000 MT, with an official carryover of 150,000
MT-though industry sources suggest the true figure may be closer to 90,000 MT. Recent widespread frosts and continued unsettled weather have raised concerns about further nut drop, potentially reducing the final crop size. As a result, prices remain significantly higher than last year and are likely to stay elevated until market coverage improves or new harvests become available from alternative origins.
Apricots
Severe frost damage in Malatya, Turkey, has devastated the 2025 apricot crop, with entire orchards-especially at lower altitudes-suffering extensive tree loss. Higher elevations fared slightly better, but viable fruit remains minimal. Early forecasts suggest production may not exceed 5,000 MT, a sharp decline from the usual 100,000+ MT. The full extent of the damage will become clearer by the July harvest. Uzbekistan, though typically more costly due to smaller volumes, is now viewed as a more favourable alternative amid Turkey’s supply shortfall.
Currants
Greek production fell to 12,000 MT (vs. a normal 20,000+ MT) due to extreme weather. Stocks are extremely tight, with some varieties sold out. No meaningful price correction is expected before the next harvest in August. A repeat of extreme weather could further constrain supply and pricing in the short term.
Walnuts
China’s current crop is 1.55 million MT with stable forecasts, while California’s output remains low but is expected to rise in 2025. Price softening is anticipated due to increased supply and aggressive Chinese competition in export markets. California’s crop was affected by heat stress, but improved pricing has supported grower reinvestment.
Labour shortages remain a long-term issue in China.
Geopolitical Risks – “Rising Lion” Operation
Renewed conflict in the Middle East-triggered by Israel’s “Rising Lion” strikes on Iran—has injected significant uncertainty and a risk premium into global commodity and freight markets. Fossil diesel prices rose by $100/mt in just two weeks. The strikes could also impact global food production if fertiliser infrastructure is hit, as Iran is a key urea exporter.
Petroleum
Oil prices have surged, driven by wildfires in Canada, a weaker U.S. dollar, and tightening globa inventories. Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East have further bolstered prices.
Biofuels
The U.S. EPA has proposed significant increases to biodiesel blending mandates for 2026-2027, with a shift to favour domestic biofuel and feedstock. RIN credits for foreign feedstocks would be halved. The move supports U.S. agriculture but awaits finalisation in November.
Pistachios
Pistachio prices have risen 35% due to reduced U.S. supply and strong global demand. India is a growing market driven by interest in health and functional snacking. Chinese demand remains muted due to trade tariffs, but optimism is rising. Popularity is increasing globally, boosted by trends like Dubai Chocolate. If demand from both China and India escalates, markets could shift significantly.
Pumpkins Seeds
Tight supply and growing demand are keeping prices firm, with China dominating supply. Limited production and controlled output are maintaining upward pressure on prices. Demand continues to rise across multiple sectors, and only currency shifts may offer short-term price relief.
Coconut
Firming prices persist due to poor yields across major origins and logistical delays. Long lead times of 4-5 months remain standard due to constrained raw material availability and ongoing shipping disruptions.
No significant price correction is expected through the rest of 2025, with tight supply likely to extend into early 2026.
Pecans
Global production dropped 10% due to extreme weather in the U.S. and Mexico, although South Africa’s output helped offset some losses. The U.S. and Mexico remain key producers, with China expanding slowly. Pecans are costly to produce, have long lead times to maturity, and the lowest yield per acre among tree nuts. Price pressures remain high due to limited supply and strong demand.
Shipping
Far East imports into Northern Europe continue to face disruption, with shipping capacity diverted to ease Trans-Pacific congestion, leading to a shortage of 40ft high cube containers. Rising demand on African and Latin American routes is adding further pressure to container availability.
Freight rates remain volatile amid tight capacity, with early June space already close to full, likely driving higher rates later in the month. A Peak Season Surcharge has been introduced on the Transatlantic route, potentially lasting through September. Meanwhile, East Midlands Airport has announced a major expansion to boost its role as the UKs leading express air freight hub, adding significant warehouse and yard capacity.