Market Information
Rising Cod & Haddock Prices Amid Barents Sea Quota Cuts
The 2025 Barents Sea cod and haddock quotas have been slashed, driving prices for frozen headed and gutted (H&G) fish to record highs. Norway and Russia have set a total allowable catch (TAC) of 340,000 metric tons for cod, down 25% year-on-year—less severe than the 31% cut recommended by scientists. This supply reduction has led to increased competition among buyers, with Norwegian H&G cod prices reaching $7,300 per metric ton (CFR China) and Russian cod at $5,900 per metric ton.
Haddock prices are also on the rise, with the 2025 TAC cut by 8% to 130,000 metric tons. Norwegian H&G haddock prices now stand at $4,800 per metric ton, surpassing previous market highs. The disparity between Norwegian and Russian pricing has narrowed, as demand remains strong despite pushback from buyers, particularly in China. With limited supply and a rush to secure stock ahead of the Lunar New Year, market conditions remain uncertain, with further volatility expected into 2025.
Eggs
The ongoing issue regarding Bird Flu is having a huge impact on the availability of eggs, amongst other things. Our supplier has now notified us that we are being ‘rationed’ along with their other customers so they can ensure they provide everyone with some stock.
Obviously, this also impacts not just eggs but poultry and, in turn, other proteins that people are sourcing as replacements. Large quantities of ‘healthy’ poultry also having to be removed from the food chain as travel restrictions in affected areas mean that product cant get to manufacturing sites within the required welfare time frame, which adds to the issue.
For more information, read: What you should know about Bird Flu in the UK and Avian influenza (bird flu) in Europe, Russia and the UK
Palm Oil
Indonesian Biofuel mandates combined with persistent rainfall continue to impact the availability of palm oil as demand continues to drive pricing higher. By November 2024, there was a shortfall of 1.847mmt vs the same period last year; this, combined with the Biofuel mandates requiring an additional 3 mmt of palm oil, has effectively reduced export availability.
Sunflower Oil
Sunflower oil prices have eased over the past week, but the current premium over rapeseed and soybean oil is limiting demand. In the UK, demand for sunflower oil has been limited to retail or those customers who prefer sunflower oil. The market is still struggling due to tight supplies from both the EU and Ukraine, which has impacted the crush progress and limited oil availability.
Soyal Oil
European soy oil prices have firmed over the past month, following gains in US futures markets on strong demand for biodiesel. Some additional support is also coming from the fact that soyoil prices are the most competitive vegoil and that world demand is rising due to a sharp fall in rapeseed and sunflower oil production, as well as high palm oil prices.
Wheat
Cold weather concerns in the Black Sea and USA have caused grain markets to increase, although old crop remains subdued to oversupply. Sub-zero temperatures in the US plains have increased the threat of frost kill with 40% of spring crops marked as in drought condition. Russian crops are facing similar temperatures but with minimal protective snow cover. New season prospects remain positive with crops surviving the colder weather. A dry spell will signal fertilizer applications which will significantly help. With a tighter Russian old crop export quota now in place and clear issues for 2025 production potential, the future pressure on world wheat prices from the world’s largest wheat exporter which we have come to expect may ease.
Rapeseed Oil
UK rapeseed old crop months are only up slightly since the start of January, despite concerns that a sharply lower EU/UK crop last year will tighten availability. New crop months (August onwards) are firmer from the start of the month but there are ideas that winter weather conditions are, so far, more favourable which will improve crop prospects later this year. There is still a great deal of uncertainty over the impact of potential trade tariffs against Canada, as well as China, and what this means for the EU. Biodiesel is a major factor in EU rapeseed/oil demand, with usage rising year on year as the market is phasing out palm oil in the use of bioenergy, with new mandates also being introduced for sustainable aviation fuel, which will also impact the UK market.
Cocoa
Availability continues to be a challenge, and securing long-term supply to support manufacturing and, subsequently, product availability has become incredibly costly. Unfortunately, the future outlook remains challenging as crops across the world and, importantly, the Ivory Coast continue to be impacted by unfavourable weather patterns, poor soil moisture and compounded YOY high global demand.
Tuna
Taiwanese vessels are catching around 15-25MT per day, Chinese vessels are catching around 20MT per day. Philippine vessels are catching around 5-20MT per day, in general, poor fishing continues. Fishing near Peruvian EEZ is moderate averaging 40MT per day with prices increasing to $1,650/MT. North of Seychelles is reporting 15-30MT per day although fish sizes are very small, below 1.5kg mostly. Atlantic Ocean – fishing is averaging 20-25MT per day. The current price stays at $1,450/MT but it is expected to rise due to upcoming fad ban in the Atlantic (March 17th to April 30th).
Potatoes
Elevated prices for three seasons running and the poor performance of alternative crops all point to a larger European potato area this year. Growers are set to plant a larger crop driven by elevated potato prices over the last three seasons, increasing demand and poor performance among alternative crops. The increases in exports of UK frozen processed potato products that has taken place in recent months is beginning to decline. UK exports are dominated by the Republic of Ireland, which in 2024, accounted for 83% of all exports, up from 73% a year ago.
Dairy
Milk availability and, subsequently, butter production remain stretched as we head into 2025. With a lack of any significant spring flush in 2024 combined with 12 months of incredibly poor weather, favourable conditions are required in the spring to come close to satisfying the demand of 2025. Butter availability across Europe remains incredibly low.
Pineapple
Prices for pineapple have increased by approximately 15%, there are huge shortages of raw material and factories have smaller productions and are delaying orders. Expect higher prices next month. From early Feb, fruit supply has been slowly dropping, and fruit costs further move up as packers are competing to get fruit supply to fulfil I pending orders for both can and juice concentrate.
Tomatoes
Global output of fresh tomato: Crop 2024 = 45.8 million tons – Crop 2025 forecast= 40.5 million tons, 11.5% less. The major decline will be from China and the USA. China: Crop 2024 = 10.45 million tons – Crop 2025 forecast= 6 million tons. The total output from China will decline by up to 50%. California said that the plantation will be reduced by 14% which results to a lower output of 1 million tons. European origins (like Spain and Portugal) are also facing pressure from less plantation.
Latest News and Research
The Rising Value of Table Time in Hospitality
Retail Analyst, Glynn Davis, writing for Propel, looked at the value of Table Time in Hospitality, seeing a fundamental shift in how restaurants manage and value table time.
Whilst tasting menu establishments like Legacy and Roots Restaurant command premium prices, they offer an unhurried dining experience lasting three hours or more. This contrasts sharply with the emerging trend of restaurants optimising table turnover to maintain profitability amidst rising costs.
“With the increased costs involved in running restaurants and other hospitality businesses, the calculation of how much time a table can be given to customers will be a primary consideration for a growing number of establishments.”
For example, London’s Orasay has transformed into Dove, adopting a new business model that reduces dining time from three hours to 90 minutes, whilst lowering the spend per head from £60 to £50. This seemingly counterintuitive move actually increases revenue per minute from 33p to 55p per diner – a crucial metric in today’s challenging economic climate.
This shift reflects a broader trend in the industry, where restaurants must carefully balance the time allocated to diners against operational costs. The article suggests we’re moving towards an era where both restaurateurs and customers will need to acknowledge this reality: longer table times may require higher spending, whilst shorter dining experiences might offer more accessible price points.
Half of Hospitality Operators Unprepared for Rising Post-April Staffing Costs, Survey Finds
More than half of hospitality operators are unaware of their post-April staffing costs, according to a survey by labour management firm S4labour. The survey found that 51% of respondents had yet to calculate the impact of national living wage increases and national insurance threshold changes. To offset these rising costs, 32% of operators plan to raise menu prices, while 30% aim to improve productivity. Reducing staff hours (23%) and pausing recruitment or layoffs (12%) were also cited as potential measures, with 4% still undecided.
S4labour’s chief executive, Alastair Scott, warned that businesses must review their labour costs and prepare for an estimated 8.3% increase, which could rise closer to 10% as employers adjust wages beyond the legal minimum to retain staff. Without proper planning, these changes could place significant financial strain on businesses. Scott emphasised the importance of proactive measures to ensure operational stability and long-term success.