Market Information
Tomatoes
Planting is complete in the North, with early harvest expected from 25 July. Some localised damage and unexplained seedling losses were reported. Forecast remains at 3 million tonnes. In the Centre-South, planted area is down 7%, with Foggia seeing a sharp 20–30% decline due to low dam levels. Pricing disputes continue, with some growers yet to sign contracts. Italy’s total crop forecast remains at 5.6 million tonnes, pending surface data in July.
Confectionery
The UK sugar confectionery market reached £1.6 billion in June 2025, up 2.7% year-on-year, with private label sales rising 4.2% as shoppers sought value during economic pressure. Although overall grocery volumes fell slightly, sugar lines outperformed in supermarkets, growing 3.6%. However, chocolate continued to outpace sugar across all retail channels, underscoring the competitive dynamics within the sector.
Cheese
The UK cheese market remains stable, with steady demand from wholesale and foodservice sectors, particularly for Cheddar and Mozzarella. Cheddar prices have declined entering Q3 2025 due to increased UK production and lower milk costs, enhancing competitiveness. Conversely, Mozzarella prices have risen, with ongoing volatility linked to higher processing costs, robust demand, and inconsistent European supply. Cheddar supply is strong with short lead times, while Mozzarella remains available but has prompted more forward ordering. Market challenges include Mozzarella pricing uncertainty, ongoing labour and fuel cost pressures, and heightened price sensitivity among customers.
Wheat
Harvests across Europe are progressing well, with UK barley showing average yields and good quality. Wheat harvest is still to come, but early signs are positive. In France, wheat and winter barley harvests are ahead of schedule with strong yields and good quality. Germany and the Czech Republic have raised their crop forecasts, while drought in southern Ukraine has reduced yields by around 20%. The EU plans to cut Ukrainian imports by 80%, which may shift trade to other regions. Globally, wheat and corn production are forecast to rise, with the FAO projecting record cereal output. Brazil and Argentina are seeing strong corn production and exports, while Australia’s crops are benefiting from rainfall. Markets remain cautious due to global trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. UK wheat may face export challenges if production exceeds 13 million tonnes. The performance of global maize crops will be critical in shaping grain markets in the months ahead.
Rapeseed Oil
Rapeseed oil prices have been on the rise since early July. What’s interesting is that this is happening despite relatively low seed prices. The market’s clearly reacting to concerns about potential harvest delays and production losses in key growing regions like Canada, Ukraine, and possibly even Australia. On the other hand, the EU crop looks slightly better than expected. Rape meal prices have been under some pressure lately, which means oil needs to firm up to keep the crush margins working. Short-term, we see support from limited seed availability and some crush plant downtime while we wait for new crop supplies.
Soy Oil
Soy oil prices in the US have jumped significantly since mid-June, mostly off the back of unexpectedly high biodiesel blending mandates. There’s been strong demand recently, and with UK and EU refiners sold out through August and even into September, availability is pretty tight. On the European side, crush margins aren’t looking great—meal demand is weak, so it’s the oil that’s currently pulling its weight, despite only making up a small part of the overall crush value.
Sunflower Oil
Sunflower oil prices have spiked lately, driven by reports of major crop losses in the EU due to hot and dry weather. Ukraine and Russia may also see lower yields from the same conditions, though global production is still forecast to be higher than last year. Still, the market’s clearly nervous about the European supply side.
Palm Oil
Palm oil has also seen a strong price run over the past couple of months, largely following the soy oil market. One major driver has been Indonesia’s full implementation of the B40 biodiesel mandate, which effectively removes 1.2–1.7 million tonnes of palm oil from the export market. That said, future gains might be capped—stocks and production are expected to rise in the coming months. Interestingly, palm oil has shifted from one of the priciest oils to the cheapest on the board.
Apricots
Apricot exports are up 12% year-on-year, but average prices have actually dropped, mainly due to earlier pricing before a major frost hit Malatya province in April. That frost caused serious damage during a critical stage of fruit development, so the 2025 crop is expected to be well below normal. As a result, demand for the remaining 2024 stock is picking up quickly, and prices are starting to climb. Orchard maintenance is ongoing, with growers already managing weeds and preparing for pruning to support next season’s growth.
Figs
Fig exports are slightly down in volume, but prices have jumped by over 20% due to tightening supply. Conditions in Aydin province have mostly been good, though drought concerns are emerging in some higher-altitude areas. Fruit set looks solid, and caprification went smoothly. As we move through the season, good-quality dried figs are getting harder to find, which is keeping upward pressure on prices, especially for top-grade product.
Pumpkin Seed
New crop development looks good so far, with decent yield potential if temperatures stay moderate. Planted area is down around 30%, but strong yields could help offset that. Prices have been stable, with no major swings expected short term.
Pistachios
June 2025 saw a slight dip in U.S. domestic pistachio shipments, while exports rose, showing strong international demand, especially for kernels, which are up 8% year-over-year thanks to growing use in value-added products like premium chocolate. That said, total shipments are still down about 20% compared to last year, mainly due to tight inventory and lower yields from the off-year in the crop cycle. The 2025 crop is progressing well so far, with early signs suggesting a harvest could begin a week or so ahead of schedule. While a few early deals have been made, most sellers are holding off until there’s more clarity on volume, quality, and market conditions, especially given the impact of ongoing trade tensions.