Wheat
Wheat prices remain stable globally, trading within a narrow band despite ample supply. UK producers face tighter conditions due to smaller stockpiles, limiting their ability to absorb price drops. Domestic feed demand is strong, driven by drought-reduced forage, prompting buyers to pay premiums for held wheat. Most are buying on a hand-to-mouth basis, avoiding forward contracts. AHDB data suggests UK carry-in stocks may be 1 million tonnes lower than expected, implying a tighter 2025 supply-demand balance.
Unlike previous seasons, early imports haven’t materialised, and with demand spread over 12½ to 13 months due to an early harvest, the season’s end could be volatile. Planting for 2026 is progressing well thanks to favourable weather and early crop clearance. Despite poor 2025 margins, wheat remains the UK’s primary cereal crop. Global market sentiment, shaped by geopolitical tensions and currency shifts, continues to influence UK pricing until domestic dynamics take over.
Oil Market
Global edible oil and fat prices are rising due to tightening supplies and strong biofuel demand. Key drivers include reduced soybean oil exports, Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel mandate, EU’s REDIII directive, Brazil’s blending targets, and U.S. policy uncertainty. While groundnut oil and butter remain costly outliers, most oils face upward pressure. Market dynamics are shifting: palm oil, once discounted, now matches or exceeds soybean oil prices. Sunflower oil remains the priciest, with its 2026 outlook under scrutiny. Despite strong demand, each scenario carries risks, making the market volatile and closely watched by producers, traders, and policymakers.
Whitefish
Whitefish prices in the UK have surged due to a combination of global and domestic pressures. A key factor is the disruption of Russian seafood imports following the UK’s 35% tariff in March 2022, imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine. As Russia was a major fish supplier, this, along with voluntary boycotts, has tightened supply and driven up prices. Simultaneously, fishing quotas for North Atlantic Cod and Haddock are set to be cut by 31% and 24% respectively in 2025—amounting to a 63% reduction over four years—further limiting availability. Businesses across the seafood supply chain face rising costs, including energy, labour, freight (due to Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions), and packaging. Compounding these challenges is the UK’s broader inflationary climate, which has raised the cost of living and intensified pressure on seafood businesses, creating a perfect storm of escalating prices and constrained supply.
Dairy
Milk production surged globally in September, with UK volumes up 6.1% year-on-year, resembling a spring flush. This oversupply, particularly in younger cheeses like mozzarella and mild cheddar, is exerting downward pressure on prices. Major processors have responded with significant price cuts to rebalance the market. A new EU–US trade agreement has alleviated tariff concerns and enhanced export potential, although it raises questions about UK dairy autonomy and food security. Industry bodies are advocating for protections that reflect the UK’s strengths in animal welfare, traceability, and sustainability. Processing capacity is under strain, while demand, supported by foodservice and retail (cheese sales up 2.1% YOY), remains steady but insufficient to absorb surplus volumes. Export interest is returning as competitive pricing attracts buyers. Northern Ireland production rose 11.1% YOY. Mature cheddar remains stable amid tight stocks, and blue cheese is gaining traction among younger consumers.
Pineapple
The September 2025 update highlighted shifting dynamics in the global processed pineapple market. Thailand’s output dropped 82% in August due to a low harvest cycle, though year to date volumes remain higher than in 2024. To meet the 850K MT forecast, the winter crop must deliver 320K MT. Prices rose to THB 13–15/kg, and processors are expected to resume operations now. Thailand’s industry continues consolidating, with only 12 canneries remaining, down from 23 in 2011, amid rising labour costs and supply challenges. The rest of the world’s pineapple pricing looks stable, but this will ultimately be governed by weather playing out as expected.
Rapeseed Oil
Canada’s rapeseed harvest is ahead of schedule with strong yields, possibly surpassing 21 Mmt. With China’s market closed, exports are shifting to the EU, where demand is rising due to sunfl ower shortages and favourable crush margins. However, imports from Canada and Ukraine are limiting price increases, despite fi rm nearby contract prices. This is one to watch where Mayonnaise pricing is concerned.