Market Information
Dairy
Milk deliveries are expected to remain steady, with a slight increase of 0.15%, driven by improved yield performance. Milk prices are projected to stay above the five-year average, supported by reduced feed costs that continue to enhance producer margins. Production of cheese and whey is set to expand further, while exports of fresh dairy products, cheese, and whey powders are also anticipated to maintain positive momentum.
Beef
EU beef weights rose by 2% in Q1 2025, driven by elevated cattle prices. However, overall production is forecast to decline by 1.3% year-on-year to 6.73 million tonnes, as reductions in output from France, Spain, and Germany outweigh modest gains in Ireland, Italy, and Poland, largely due to a shrinking breeding herd. Despite higher prices, European beef consumption is expected to hold steady, with per capita intake estimated at 9.9kg, down 0.9% from last year. Export volumes are projected to fall by 4% in 2025, as EU beef struggles to compete with more affordable South American supply. Imports, on the other hand, may rise by up to 5%, reaching 370,000 tonnes, driven by increased shipments from Mercosur countries. UK-origin imports into the EU dropped 11% between January and April, reflecting the impact of elevated UK beef prices.
Wheat
The UK wheat harvest is nearly complete, showing excellent quality but highly variable yields—some regions report up to 40% year-on-year declines. Crop size estimates vary, with Expana forecasting 12.35 mln mt for 2025, though NFU and AHDB figures are awaited. Despite domestic supply concerns, UK prices remain tied to global trends, where EU wheat output is set to rise sharply. Improved market availability has softened spot premiums, yet farmer retention and cash flow dynamics may lead to periods of low liquidity and firmer prices. Globally, bearish pressures include strong production and weak demand, while bullish risks stem from quality concerns, trade politics, and weather disruptions. Price volatility is expected, especially around geopolitical developments.
Potatoes
Potato markets have remained notably subdued in recent weeks, though sales saw a modest uplift last week with the arrival of cooler weather. As families repare for the back-to-school period, there is cautious optimism that demand will begin to recover. Supply for the processing sector is plentiful this season, with some crops expected to be ready for desiccation by month-end due to their advanced growth stage.
Across Europe, the processing market is reported to be saturated. While contracted volumes are being fulfilled on schedule, placing any surplus beyond contract remains extremely challenging. Some factories continue to work through remaining stocks of last season’s crop. There is tentative interest in export, though buyers are awaiting samples with fully set skins before committing.
In the UK, recent heavy rainfall over the past three weeks has been timely for many growing regions. However, size may be limited on unirrigated sites in the east, and agronomists are beginning to identify crop defects.
Olive Oil
Origin prices have dropped sharply due to a strong harvest and favourable weather, currently ranging between €3.90 and €4.00/kg. Consumer prices continue to decline, particularly across supermarket channels. Industry sources anticipate price stabilisation in the near term, though bulk market rates may rise if current conditions persist. Potential supply tension could emerge during the transition to the 2025–26 harvest, especially if demand remains robust and stock levels diminish.